Bayesian sample size determination for integrated test of missile hit accuracy

Sample size determination (SSD) methods for integrated test of missile hit accuracy are analyzed, which reveals the problem and contradiction in classical method and Bayesian method using standard power prior for design. In order to solve the contradiction between standard power prior for design and average posterior variance criterion of Bayesian SSD while prior sample size is very large, design effect of experiment is proposed with a comprehensive consideration on simulation test credibility and prior sample size. Thus, a modified power exponent for design prior elicitation based on design effect equivalence of experiment is given. Taking Bayesian average posterior variance for parameter of interest as the output precision, we get the optimization equations for SSD of integrated test scheme under both test cost constraint and required posterior precision constraint. In the end, the effectiveness of our proposed Bayesian SSD method for integrated test of missile hit accuracy is illustrated with two examples.