Assessing Typhoon Extreme Wind Speed with Long-Term Future Sea Surface Temperature Projections under CMIP6

This study investigates the potential impacts of long-term sea surface temperature (SST) climate change on typhoon extreme wind speeds using a typhoon track model based on six climate projection scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). First, a typhoon track and intensity model for the western North Pacific region was calibrated using historical data from the CAS-FGOALS-g3 (CAS) model under CMIP6 and historical typhoon observations from the China Meteorological Administration. Then, a quantile mapping method was applied in order to calibrate SST discrepancies across the other CMIP6 climate models. Finally, the projected future climate scenarios from the six models under CMIP6 were integrated with the typhoon model to assess the possible influence of long-term change of SST typhoon extreme winds. Comparative analysis of simulated typhoon intensity evolution under historical and future scenarios revealed the influence of climate model variability on extreme wind speed projections.