An Investigation of Magnetic Energy and Helicity Thresholds at the Onset of Solar Eruptions Based on Numerical Simulations

Identifying universal, topology-independent thresholds in the coronal magnetic fields at the onset of solar eruptions is crucial for physics-based prediction of eruptions. To this end, we systematically analyze the evolution of magnetic energy and helicity in 12 high-fidelity 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations where eruptions are triggered by magnetic reconnection. The simulations encompass a comprehensive parameter space, including bipolar and quadrupolar configurations, sheared arcades, preexisting flux ropes, and various photospheric driving motions. We find that the ratio of current-carrying helicity to total relative helicity (H_j/H_r) exhibits a remarkably consistent threshold of 0.38 ± 0.04 at eruption onset across all cases, with a coefficient of variation of only ∼10%. This threshold specifically characterizes the critical conditions at eruption onset and is largely independent of the subsequent temporal evolution, making it the most robust eruptivity indicator identified. In contrast, other normalized helicity and energy metrics show greater scatter. Crucially, we further find that H_j/H_r does not necessarily achieve its peak at the eruption onset time and its posteruption evolution diverges based on the magnetic topology. It continues to increase in bipolar configurations due to tether-cutting reconnection, which transforms sheared arcades into erupting current-carrying magnetic flux, but decreases in quadrupolar configurations as breakout reconnection peels off the erupting flux. These results highlight the helicity ratio as a promising and consistent eruptivity indicator and provide new insights into its dynamic evolution due to different reconnections.