A statistical dynamics track model of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin

A full track model of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin is developed based on statistical dynamics method and applied to estimate tropical cyclone passing rate within a defined radius. The track model consists of a genesis model, a movement model, and an intensity model. The emphasis here is on improving the first two models. The genesis points of tropical cyclones are simulated based on an improved three-dimensional kernel probability density and the tracks are simulated using the Beta and Advection Model (BAM). Using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track dataset and the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset for the period 1949-2014, the tropical cyclone tracks for 1,000 years are performed by the improved model. The simulated average tracks and passing rates are comparing with that of the historical statistics in the western North Pacific basin, the results of which indicate that the model performs well. Future, the improved full track model will be combined with wind field model to assess typhoon wind hazard in the western North Pacific basin.