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A Global Database for Quantifying Predictability of Solar Irradiance

  • Xiaoyi Yang
  • , Dazhi Yang
  • , Peng Wang*
  • *Corresponding author for this work
  • Beihang University
  • School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Harbin Institute of Technology

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Solar forecast is an essential subject in many engineering and geophysical fields. It is well known that the accuracy of solar forecasts may vary considerably across different geographical locations and temporal periods. In order to evaluate one's solar forecast, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) score has been widely used to compare the performances of different forecast models across various locations and time periods. Alternatively, for the same evaluation purpose, one may also employ a satellite-derived or reanalysis irradiance database with global coverage. In this paper, we propose such a global database of reference solar forecast accuracy using records from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System over the time period 2000 to 2020. The final RMSE score can be calculated using the corresponding reference forecasts in our database, and thus provides a worldwide guideline for solar forecast research. Furthermore, We also discovered an interesting relation between RMSE on a global scale and the classification of climate.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2021 IEEE 48th Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2021
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages489-493
Number of pages5
ISBN (Electronic)9781665419222
DOIs
StatePublished - 20 Jun 2021
Externally publishedYes
Event48th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2021 - Fort Lauderdale, United States
Duration: 20 Jun 202125 Jun 2021

Publication series

NameConference Record of the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference
ISSN (Print)0160-8371

Conference

Conference48th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2021
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityFort Lauderdale
Period20/06/2125/06/21

Keywords

  • Database
  • Skill Score
  • Solar forecasting

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