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A data-driven explainable case-based reasoning approach for financial risk detection

  • Wei Li
  • , Florentina Paraschiv
  • , Georgios Sermpinis*
  • *Corresponding author for this work
  • National University of Singapore
  • Humboldt University of Berlin
  • Norwegian University of Science and Technology
  • Zeppelin University
  • University of Glasgow

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The rapid development of artificial intelligence methods contributes to their wide applications for forecasting various financial risks in recent years. This study introduces a novel explainable case-based reasoning (CBR) approach without a requirement of rich expertise in financial risk. Compared with other black-box algorithms, the explainable CBR system allows a natural economic interpretation of results. Indeed, the empirical results emphasize the interpretability of the CBR system in predicting financial risk, which is essential for both financial companies and their customers. In addition, our results show that the proposed automatic design CBR system has a good prediction performance compared to other artificial intelligence methods, overcoming the main drawback of a standard CBR system of highly depending on prior domain knowledge about the corresponding field.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2257-2274
Number of pages18
JournalQuantitative Finance
Volume22
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - 2022
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Case-based reasoning
  • Credit risk
  • Decision theory
  • Financial risk management
  • Particle swarm optimization

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