驾驶人"感知-决策-操控"行为模型

This paper proposes a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based driver perception-decision-manipulation behavior model to simulate the car-following behaviors. The HMM model is used to describe driving intention and simulate the driver's perception process, that is, to obtain the desired vehicle spacing. The prediction module is developed to predict the vehicle trajectory responding to the traffic conditions and driver's psychological status. The prediction module represents driver's decision-making process. The optimization module simulates driver's control actions and adjusts the predicted vehicle spacing to meet the expected vehicle spacing. Driver's perception-decision-control behavior is then simulated through a rolling process of the three proposed sub-modules. The natural driving data were used for empirical analysis and the results indicate the average error of the model is 1.47%, which reflects the effectiveness and accuracy of the model. This paper provides a new perspective for the theoretical research and application of driving behavior modeling.