锁定碳排放约束下我国煤电搁浅资产风险评估

By modelling of the financial situation of coal-fired plants in unit level, the Net Present Value method was used to calculate stranded assets under the scenarios of early retirement, low utilization, restriction et al. Then temporal and spatial distribution of stranded assets were clarified to provide some support for the transition pathway of coal power. The stock of coal-fired power units was the main cause of stranded assets. Controlling the new coal-fired power would help to reduce stranded assets risk. Under the scenario of early retirement and low utilization, the value of operating and new stranded assets in China was CNY 1.90 trillion and CNY 3.98 trillion respectively; Early retirement and low utilization led to obvious interannual distribution differences of coal power stranded assets. The risk of early retirement was mainly concentrated in 2030~2040, while low utilization was concentrated primarily in 2021~2035; The spatial distribution of coal power stranded assets is extremely uneven. The ten major coal power provinces, including Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu, accounted stranded assets for 67% and 70%. Therefore, the low-carbon transition of coal power needed cautious decision-making, paying attention to the stranding of coal-fired power assets caused by early retirement. More importantly, we should prevent and control the impairment of stranded assets caused by flexible transformation. The key provinces such as Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Jiangsu should be focused especially. Formulate coal power transformation strategies according to local conditions to help power related enterprises and the government choose emission reduction policies.