覆 冰 输 电 导 线 起 舞 概 率 研 究

Aiming at the galloping problem of ice-covered transmission lines，a probability analysis method for evaluating the galloping of ice-covered transmission lines is proposed based on the probability density evolution method. Firstly，the galloping performance function based on critical wind speed of ice-covered transmission lines is established，and the critical wind speed is solved by combining the finite element model of three-node cable element with three translational degrees of freedom and one torsional degree of freedom and Lyapunov sta⁃ bility theorem. Secondly，an evaluation framework of galloping probability for ice-covered transmission lines is developed based on the probability density evolution method，and the galloping probability of ice-covered trans⁃ mission lines is calculated and analyzed. Finally，the galloping probability of a single-span ice-covered conductor is calculated and analyzed. The analysis results show that this method can accurately calculate the galloping prob⁃ ability of the transmission line，and it has obvious advantages compared with the method of Latin hypercube sampling-Monte Carlo simulation（LHS-MCS）in calculation efficiency. The span length，initial horizontal ten⁃ sion and initial wind attack angle have great influence on the galloping probability of the single-span transmission lines.