科研产出特征对拔尖科技人才成长的影响研究

Scientific and technological talent is the key force for a country to achieve technological self - reliance and accelerate technological progress. This study focuses on 1,198 Excellent young scientists from 2013 to 2015, using their growth into outstanding scientists as a " natural experiment" to characterize the development of top - notch scientific and technological talent. The study categorizes the growth of top - notch scientific and technological talent into two dimensions: the ability to become top - notch talent and the speed of their growth. Based on three characteristics of research output—quantity, influence, and comprehensive performance—the study employs binary Logit and truncated regression models to examine the relationship between research output characteristics and the growth of top - notch scientific and technological talents. The findings are as follows: (1) The quantity, influence, and comprehensive performance of research output have significant positive effects on the likelihood of becoming top - notch scientific and technological talent. (2) Only the influence of research output has a significant positive effect on the growth speed of top - notch talent. (3) Compared to university scientists, young scientists of non - university backgrounds have a higher probability of becoming top - notch scientists. Additionally, when the research output characteristics of non - university exceptional young scientists increase by the same unit, the odds of becoming top - notch scientists is higher than that of university scientists. In other words, increasing research output characteristics have a greater contribution for non - university young scientists. (4) Regarding the impact of research output characteristics on the likelihood of becoming top - notch scientists, the research output characteristics of young scientists in the eastern region consistently have a significant positive impact at the 1% level, which aligns with the overall trend. The quantity characteristic of research output from young scientists in the central region only has a significant impact at the 10% level, while the impact of research output characteristics in the western region is not significant. Based on these research conclusions, we propose policy recommendations from three levels: micro - level, meso - level, and macro - level. At the micro - level of individual academic career development, researchers should enhance their academic level and increase their chances of being selected for talent programs by publishing papers in high - level journals, improving the citation frequency and H - index of their papers. Paying attention to the influence of papers and striving to publish highly cited papers in high - level journals is particularly important. At the meso - level of talent cultivation in research institutions, corresponding incentive policies should be formulated to encourage scientific and technological talents to publish high - level papers. When formulating incentive policies, greater weight should be given to paper quality, considering the difficulty and time cost of publishing papers in high - level journals. Finally, at the macro - level of national science and technology talent policy orientation, government departments should formulate policies that create a favorable research environment and stimulate innovative vitality among scientific and technological talents. Policy orientation should be guided by the value of knowledge, weakening the role played by quantity characteristics of research output and emphasizing quality, performance, and contribution. At the same time, inequalities between different regions should be balanced by providing support for cultivating scientific and technological talents in the central and western regions.