碳达峰下城市交通运输减排治理策略研究

With the continuous acceleration of the process of urbanization and motorization in China, the carbon and pollution emission problem of the transportation industry has become more and more serious, which has become one of the main sources of carbon emissions. Effective management of urban traffic emissions through policy measures is the key to achieving sustainable urban development and the peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. Based on the analysis of the urban transportation system structure and the causal relationship of various elements, this paper divided the urban transportation energy consumption and emission system into seven subsystems: population, economy, private cars, public transportation, logistics and freight transportation, transportation infrastructure, energy consumption, and emissions, and used system dynamics method to establish an urban transportation emission reduction governance policy decision model, taking Harbin as an example to conduct policy simulation. First, we established the causal diagram and stock-flow diagram, and performed equation setting, parameter estimation, and validity test on the model, then we used Vensim software to simulate the effects of different policies, finally, we discussed how to adopt different policies to achieve the target of urban transportation peak carbon dioxide emissions, so as to provide decision-making basis and strategic plan for urban transportation emission reduction governance.