基于 Mixed-MRIO 模型的湖北省洪涝灾害脆弱性区域产业识别

Under the background of climate change and regional economic integration, flood disasters occurred in a certain place will have serious ripple effects on external regions through industrial correlation, although these regions are far apart in space. Accurate estimation of the ripple effect is helpful for policy-makers to formulate industrial layout plan and improve the efficiency of flood management. The purpose of this research is to construct an integrated framework for estimating the direct and ripple losses at the same time. The specific steps to build the framework are as follows. First, using functional fragility curves to estimate the direct losses of various sectors in the stricken area under simulate scenarios of different massive inundation. Then, based on the mixed multiregional input-output model, this study uses the direct losses data as exogenous variables to evaluate the ripple losses outside the stricken area under different inundation depths. Vulnerable regions and industrial sectors in Hubei Province can be identified by aggregating data from simulations across different regions. The main findings are as follows: (1)The ripple losses caused by Wuhan City under the moderate inundation scenario is 36. 61% of the direct losses. (2)From the perspective of regional correlation, Jingmen City and Jingzhou City are more vulnerable, which are closely linked with other regions in Hubei Province. Because these two cities have always suffered huge losses in the numerical simulation of massive flood disaster. The average ripple loss of these two cities is about 4. 8 times and 4. 2 times that of Tianmen and Shennongjia area, which has the smallest ripple loss. (3) From the perspective of industrial sectors correlation, the ripple economic impact of flood disasters is mainly concentrated in agriculture, livelihood-related manufacturing, residential services, as well as transport, storage and postal services. Among them,the livelihood-related manufacturing with the largest loss is even a hundred times more than the scientific research and technical service. The results can provide reference for the government to formulate disaster prevention and mitigation policies and make post-disaster reconstruction decisions.