基于阻滞增长模型的台风强度演变模拟

Located on the west coast of the Northwest Pacific, China is one of the countries seriously affected by tropical cyclones (TC) in the world. From 1963 to 2019, TCs accounted for 50% or even more of the losses caused by natural disasters. Therefore, reliable quantitative analysis of typhoon hazard is essential for government to make disaster prevention and mitigation plans, and also is important for financial institutions (such as insurance and reinsurance industry) and even individual families. The full track synthetic TC model can be used to analyze risk of typhoon disaster by synthesizing a large number of typhoons from generation to extinction, and it is the most potential model to assess typhoon hazard, the basic idea of which is to simulate the track segments first, and then combine them into a complete track and intensity. In this paper, a TC intensity model based on retardation growth model is established to simulate the intensity evolution of TC during its life in the northwest Pacific. The sea-air environmental factors are incorporated into the model, and the sample data are classified into ten categories based on the intensity strengthening or weakening phases of tropical cyclones and intensity classes, and the intensity models based on the stagnant growth model are established separately. Finally, by comparing the JTWC best track records and the results of model simulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, it is found that the simulation intensity of the proposed model is consistent with the historical average intensity, but the simulation effect is not good for the rapid enhancement of intensity, which may be related to the lack of sample data.