基于模糊 BN 的企业业务中断风险分析: 以洪涝灾害情景为例

Yinghua Song; Lianlong Ma; Lijiao Yang; Xinyu Jiang

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.06.001

基于模糊 BN 的企业业务中断风险分析: 以洪涝灾害情景为例

Translated title of the contribution: Business interruption risk analysis based on fuzzy BN: a case study of flood disaster

Yinghua Song
, Lianlong Ma
, Lijiao Yang^*
, Xinyu Jiang

^*Corresponding author for this work

Wuhan University of Technology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

In order to identify the risk factors and estimate the probability of firms' inoperation caused by extreme heavy rain and flood disaster, 183 news reports of business interruption due to flood disaster since 2008 were analyzed, and a BN for business interruption based on the fault tree method was constructed. FST was adopted to reduce the uncertainty of database and to optimize fuzzy probability reasoning process. The sensitivity analysis was utilized to identify the key factors of business interruption. The results show that the business interruption risk of enterprises in China is 35.5% under the extreme heavy rain and flood disaster, and that the two main critical risk factors are water supply interruption and power supply interruption.

Translated title of the contribution	Business interruption risk analysis based on fuzzy BN: a case study of flood disaster
Original language	Chinese (Traditional)
Pages (from-to)	1-6
Number of pages	6
Journal	China Safety Science Journal
Volume	29
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.06.001
State	Published - Jun 2019
Externally published	Yes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

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Cite this

@article{c59696c0bbfb4d5b9a306def14c5166d,

title = "基于模糊 BN 的企业业务中断风险分析: 以洪涝灾害情景为例",

abstract = "In order to identify the risk factors and estimate the probability of firms' inoperation caused by extreme heavy rain and flood disaster, 183 news reports of business interruption due to flood disaster since 2008 were analyzed, and a BN for business interruption based on the fault tree method was constructed. FST was adopted to reduce the uncertainty of database and to optimize fuzzy probability reasoning process. The sensitivity analysis was utilized to identify the key factors of business interruption. The results show that the business interruption risk of enterprises in China is 35.5\% under the extreme heavy rain and flood disaster, and that the two main critical risk factors are water supply interruption and power supply interruption.",

keywords = "Bayesian network(BN), business interruption, enterprise, fuzzy set theory(FST), sensitivity analysis",

author = "Yinghua Song and Lianlong Ma and Lijiao Yang and Xinyu Jiang",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 China Safety Science Journal",

year = "2019",

month = jun,

doi = "10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.06.001",

language = "繁体中文",

volume = "29",

pages = "1--6",

journal = "China Safety Science Journal",

issn = "1003-3033",

publisher = "Editorial Department of China Safety Science Journal ",

number = "6",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - 基于模糊 BN 的企业业务中断风险分析

T2 - 以洪涝灾害情景为例

AU - Song, Yinghua

AU - Ma, Lianlong

AU - Yang, Lijiao

AU - Jiang, Xinyu

PY - 2019/6

Y1 - 2019/6

N2 - In order to identify the risk factors and estimate the probability of firms' inoperation caused by extreme heavy rain and flood disaster, 183 news reports of business interruption due to flood disaster since 2008 were analyzed, and a BN for business interruption based on the fault tree method was constructed. FST was adopted to reduce the uncertainty of database and to optimize fuzzy probability reasoning process. The sensitivity analysis was utilized to identify the key factors of business interruption. The results show that the business interruption risk of enterprises in China is 35.5% under the extreme heavy rain and flood disaster, and that the two main critical risk factors are water supply interruption and power supply interruption.

AB - In order to identify the risk factors and estimate the probability of firms' inoperation caused by extreme heavy rain and flood disaster, 183 news reports of business interruption due to flood disaster since 2008 were analyzed, and a BN for business interruption based on the fault tree method was constructed. FST was adopted to reduce the uncertainty of database and to optimize fuzzy probability reasoning process. The sensitivity analysis was utilized to identify the key factors of business interruption. The results show that the business interruption risk of enterprises in China is 35.5% under the extreme heavy rain and flood disaster, and that the two main critical risk factors are water supply interruption and power supply interruption.

KW - Bayesian network(BN)

KW - business interruption

KW - enterprise

KW - fuzzy set theory(FST)

KW - sensitivity analysis

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85112758207

U2 - 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.06.001

DO - 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.06.001

M3 - 文章

AN - SCOPUS:85112758207

SN - 1003-3033

VL - 29

SP - 1

EP - 6

JO - China Safety Science Journal

JF - China Safety Science Journal

IS - 6

ER -

基于模糊 BN 的企业业务中断风险分析: 以洪涝灾害情景为例

Abstract

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