基于复杂网络模型的灾害损失空间波及效应研究 一 以湖北省洪涝灾害情景为例

With the deepening of regional economic integration, a certain area or sector shocked by disasters would easily cause serious ripple effects on external regions through industrial correlation. It is necessary to capture the spatial ripple effect of disaster loss for integrated disaster risk management. Based on China' s inter - regional input - output data in 2012, this paper constructs an inter - regional industrial network, and takes the flood disaster scenario in Hubei Province as an example, using the correlation analysis method of the complex network model to explore the spatial ripple effect of disaster losses. The research results show that: in the case of serious flood disaster scenario in Hubei Province, except for agriculture and chemical industry, which caused serious ripple effects on downstream industries, the overall ripple intensity of flood disaster in Hubei Province on upstream industries is a-bout 1. 6 times of that on downstream industries. Comparing the first - order and second - order ripple effects, the second - order ripple on upstream industries such as chemical industry has increased significantly. From a regional point of view, Shanxi, Shaanxi, liangsu were more severely affected by the flood disaster in Hubei Province. From the perspective of the overall industrial network, the flood disaster in Hubei Province will cause systemic risks, which caused the overall network circulation efficiency to drop by 1. 2% . This study can provide a reference for the government and local industries to better manage disaster risk.