基于分位数映射法的太阳能精细化分布评估及长时预测

The efficient development and utilization of solar energy are of great significance for reducing the consumption of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. In order to further develop the solar energy in Northeast of China, especially in the area of Harbin, it is necessary to make refined distribution assessment and long term prediction. In the present work, the database of the CMIP6 was selected and downloaded, and the quantile mapping method was used to downscale and obtain high-resolution solar radiation data in the focusing area in the next 30 years. Based on the prediction data, the temporal and spatial distributions of global horizontal irradiance were studied, and the stability of solar energy resources was evaluated. The results show that the total solar radiation will decline slowly in the next 30 years, and the solar energy resources will be the most abundant in 2020-2029. The GHI and sunshine hours appear more in the western than in the eastern part, especially in the southwest, where the solar energy resources are the richest. The entire region is rich in solar energy resources and the solar energy resources are stable and have great development potential.