合 流 区 域 多 车 交 互 风 险 实 时 评 估 方 法

To explore the traffic safety characteristics of the multi-vehicle interactive lane-changing at the merging area，the study of real-time multi-vehicle interactive risk assessment was carried out. Considering the characteristics of vehicle dynamics and multi-vehicle interaction，a Bayesian hierarchical model of real-time risk assessment was constructed based on the physical state layer，multi-vehicle interaction layer and risk probability layer of vehicles. The model parameters were calibrated by MCMC Gibbs sampling method. The model validity was tested by posterior prediction of p value and variation of parameter quantile. And the predictive performance of the model was evaluated by simulation analysis. The method of k-means clustering was adopted to classify the risk level of multi-vehicle interaction. The results show that the statistical BGR of model parameters are all less than 0.1. And the p value of Durbin-Watson's posterior，normal hypothesis，test distribution symmetry and kurtosis are all close to 0.5. So the risk assessment model is convergent and has good fitting. The AUC results show that the model is more accurate in identifying low risk，higher risk and highest risk，which has good performance. The research can evaluate the vehicle operation risk in a certain period of time and provide a reference for driving decision-making.