双随机、一公开消防监管模式的演化博弈分析

In order to clarify evolutionary process and influencing factors of strategic behaviors of fire department and business units in two random selection and one information publicity fire supervision, a fire supervision model was constructed. Then, stability of the two parties’ strategy selection in such supervision was analyzed based on evolutionary game theory under an assumption that fire department and business units have limited rationality. Then, effects of different parameters on evolution results were analyzed through simulation. The research show that evolutionary system between two parties mainly tends to be three evolutionary stability strategies and one hybrid strategy with periodic fluctuations. When fire department’s inspection efforts, accountability losses, reputation gains increase, and cost of supervision and random inspection decrease, it prefers to adopt an active supervision strategy. When administrative penalties, fire accidents, and social reputation losses of business units increase, they will choose a safe business strategy.