东北三省人口收缩与城市经济韧性的互馈效应研究

The three provinces of northeastern China are typical representatives of the general trend of population change in China. Studying how to respond to provincial population shrinkage and enhance urban economic resilience in these provinces holds general and forward-looking value for promoting high-quality regional economic development. Taking 34 cities in the three provinces of northeast China from 2005 to 2023 as the research object, this paper employs the coupling coordination degree model and the panel vector autoregression model to analyze the mutual feedback effects between population shrinkage at the provincial and city levels and individual urban economic resilience. The results show that: 1) During the study period, the mutual promotion between population and urban economic resilience in the three northeastern provinces was limited, with most cities being in a state of circular imbalance. 2) In terms of spatial evolution, the high-value areas of coupling coordination between population and urban economic resilience in the three northeastern provinces have gradually evolved into a cluster-belt spatial pattern with Harbin-Changchun-Shenyang-Dalian as the key nodes, while the peripheral cities of these key nodes have improved slowly, falling into a locked state. 3) A benign interaction between urban economic resilience and populations at both the city and provincial levels has yet to be established in the three northeastern provinces. Accompanying their respective sluggish development, these systems have become trapped in a cyclical path of mutual inhibition, overall exhibiting the characteristic that populations at both the provincial and city levels constitute an inhibitory mutual feedback with individual urban economic resilience.